Edited by Rosemary Hollis and Nadim Shehadi

Published by the Royal Institute for International Affairs
In association with the Centre for Lebanese Studies
July 1996

     ISBN 1 86203 020 0

"This is a valuable work for which Chatham House and the Centre for Lebanese Studies are to be congratulated. It should be studied closely by policy-makers and the appropriate lessons drawn from it, the principal one that making war on civilians in the cause of 'anti-terrorism' does not open the road to peace"

    Sir Anthony Parsons

This collection of analytical essays highlights critical issues at stake for Lebanon and the peace process as seen by 16 international specialists. It reflects concerns which will have to be addressed if the present cycle of attack and counter attack is to be broken. The work was conceived in order to emphasise the lessons to be drawn from 'Operation Grapes of Wrath' and to focus attention on a Lebanese perspective and the need for reassessment of Lebanon's position in the Middle East peace process. This need became obvious during the Israeli attack of April 1996.

Some of the contributors provide valuable historical background on the players, their strategies and objectives; others aim to provoke more creative thinking about how to bring a viable peace to the region. The intention overall is to lay the ground for an essential rethink, not only on Lebanon, but also on the whole Middle East agenda for peace.

CONTENTS

Introduction
Sir Anthony Parsons

Operation Grapes of Wrath : Calculations of the Mediators

1. The Costs of Wrath: An American Perspective
   Richard W Murphy
2. France Makes a Comeback
   Bassma Kodmani Darwish

   The Syrian-Iranian Dynamic

3. The Address is Syria
   Patrick Seale
4. The Syrian-Iranian Axis in Lebanon
   Hussein Agha
5. Syrian Predominance in Lebanon: Not Immutable
   Volker Perthes

   Israel's Security Agenda

6. Israel in the Grip of the Insecurity Zone
   Augustus Richard Norton
7. The Limits of Coercion
   Yezid Sayigh
8. Acting Tough: Israel's Domestic Imperatives
   Marwan Bishara
9. Weighing Israel's Options Now
   Mark Heller

   Hizballah in Perspective

10. Hizballah: From Militia to Political Party
    May Chartouni Dubarry
11. Hizballah: Pragmatism and Popular Standing
    Giles Trendle

    Lebanon Emergent

12. Periodic Attacks Make for Perpetual Occupation?
    Ahmad Beydoun
13. In the Wake of Grapes of Wrath: Meeting the Challenge
    Paul Salem
14. After the Crisis:Assessing the Economic Consequences
    Marwan Ghandour
15. The Way Ahead: Restoring the Lebanese State
    Fida Nasrallah

    What of the Peace Process? Arab Fears

16. Peace Under the Gun?
    Abdel Moneim Said Aly

    Chronology